BLink!!!!

Written on Monday, September 26, 2005 by Rohan Koshy

Well i'm back and this time i bring new insights from another book i read.

Question:- how much time would you take to evaluate the effectiveness of a teacher.Or maybe a potential employee?2 days? 3 months? well research says it can be done in less than 5 mins.Suprised? Well dont be.

People we're asked to evaluate their close friends on the basis of 5 questions.Things like is he organised,compassionate,driven etc etc....So they all rated their friends.Then complete strangers we're asked to take a look at the rooms of the same people for 15 mins and rate them..Guess how well they did?Just as well as the "Close friends"

What i'm talking about is called the art of thin slicing.
Students in a particular class we're asked to evaluate their teachers in ten different categories.Then strangers we're shown A 3 SECOND VIDEO of the same teachers.They did rated the teachers just as the students did.Stunning? Yes.What's worse is that it goes against all logic.The more information you have the easier it is to make a decision right?Wrong.That maybe true only in some cases.

Consider this.A certain hospital had a problem that they had too many patients checking in for heart attacks.Doctors were swamped.Every one with a chest pain was being admitted.(because they always err on the side of caution.You could get sued if you sent someone having a heart attack home having diagnosed it as an asthma attack)

SO they made a heirarchy of three rooms.Observation,serious and ICU.Well that didnt help.They were still swamped.So what did they do.The head of the hospital implemented an algorithm(Made by someone else).This told the doctors to ask only eight questions and based on the answers they patients were either checked in or sent home(in case they had asthma or somethin minor).The algorithm was 70% better at discerning whether the patient needed to be admitted or not.

When the american army asked a few stockbrokers to come play simulation war games,the brokers did amazingly well.Why?Because just like army men,the brokers have learnt to make their decisions based on very limited information.They "thin slice" information to only what's relevant.That's the real world effect.

So why do i bring this up?It's estimated that by 2011,the world's coded information base(Books,mags,all reading material) will double every 11 HOURS!!!!Can you keep up?If we all want to go into management(and be good at it) we have to learn this art,because without it you'll probably have a nervous breadown by the time your 30.

For more info on this read:- "Blink"-malcolm gladwell.(I have it incase anyone wants it)
Adios
P.S. cheers to you two having gone 3 years and 9 months today.

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